I think your chances are better than 50/50. I think new virus safety protocols for the industry and for each cruise line will be in place by mid July and as of now the first few cruises are scheduled to depart from United States ports in early August.
The most concerning thing will probably be your departure port, New Jersey. It is currently the worst location in the United States right now for new COVID-19 cases appearing and still one of the worst for average daily deaths. Some states which have been hardest hit will be very cautions about allowing cruise ships to embark and debark for some time and New Jersey will likely be one of them. New Jersey could decide to keep their ports closed to cruises beyond your scheduled departure date.